Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfab…602d weather 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,051 (-3%) realized −$996 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate64%104W / 59L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$279
14 days+$230
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$1,354
sports 4% +$244
crypto 3% −$94
other 2% +$120
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -13.2% -21.5% 39% 30% -3.5%
≤30d 63 -13.3% -21.5% 37% 29% -4.8%
≤90d 163 -9.4% -18.0% 64% 23% -12.2%
all 163 -9.4% -18.0% 64% 23% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 23% -12.2%
10% -25.8% 13% -20.6%
15% -33.0% 9% -28.3%
20% -39.6% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$44 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized−$996
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses104 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)163 / 169
History coverage67d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $425 $451 +$26 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 50¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $697 +$131 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$20 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$8 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $641 +$195 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$37 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 −$89 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$15 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$35 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $19 +$38 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $29 +$36 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$41 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$18 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$33 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$21 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$10 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $694 +$119 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$13 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$28 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$106 +731%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $300 10m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $360 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $390 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $697 43m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $837 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $641 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $792.20 · official $792.20 (match) · 482 history records