Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdfae…98cb other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +528% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +424% what you keep after slip
Net edge+424%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$475
other 40% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+468.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +527.9% +468.1% 75% 75% +51.4%
≤30d 4 +527.9% +468.1% 75% 75% +51.4%
≤90d 4 +527.9% +468.1% 75% 75% +51.4%
all 4 +527.9% +468.1% 75% 75% +51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +468.1% 75% +51.4%
10% +413.7% 75% +36.9%
15% +364.1% 75% +23.7%
20% +318.6% 75% +11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +142% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +528% · $-wt +142% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$12 · ×17.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.43 per $1 lost it wins $53.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 +$326 +160%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $31 −$12 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$140 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$161 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 43m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 56m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $525 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Brazil 13¢ $19 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 20¢ $31 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 38¢ $204 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $199 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.17 · official $74.85 (match) · 11 history records