Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfae…5d92 crypto 482 markets active 4d ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$696 (-3%) realized −$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate82%396W / 86L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$14
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$134
world 1% −$15
other 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.4% -8.3% 71% 12% -10.8%
≤30d 89 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 12% -10.5%
≤90d 482 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 12% -9.0%
all 482 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 12% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 4% -17.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses396 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)482 / 482
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 482 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $139 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$29 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 24 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records