Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfae…998f crypto 15 markets active 11d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-86%) realized −$126 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$118
crypto 21% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +40.5% +27.2% 73% 73% +28.3%
≤90d 13 +18.9% +7.6% 62% 62% -42.9%
all 14 +10.4% -0.1% 57% 57% -89.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 57% -89.9%
10% -9.6% 57% -90.8%
15% -18.4% 57% -91.7%
20% -26.4% 57% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 24 history records