Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfaf…0b2c world 44 markets active 15h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 22% −$12
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.5% -20.0% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -11.3% -19.7% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -11.3% -19.7% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 43 -9.5% -18.1% 37% 2% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 2% -11.3%
10% -25.9% 2% -19.8%
15% -33.1% 2% -27.6%
20% -39.6% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $68 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -42%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 05 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $13 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $36 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 125 history records