Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfaf…d959 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,765 (+9%) realized +$18,897 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%52W / 79L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,506per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$3,591est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$819
7 days−$1,259
14 days+$5,756
30 days+$12,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$16,130
other 0% +$26
crypto 0% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 46% -14.8%
≤30d 98 -8.2% -17.0% 41% 41% -0.7%
≤90d 131 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 40% -2.4%
all 131 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 40% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 40% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -11.7%
15% -32.7% 40% -20.3%
20% -39.3% 38% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,970) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,533 vs −$1,463 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,977
Realized+$18,897
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses52 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3,591
Open positions6
Markets (closed)131 / 137
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,506
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $508 $548 +$39 (+8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 29¢ 12¢ $300 $124 −$176 (-59%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $509 −$509 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $406 +$445 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 +$454 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$314 +62%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $509 −$509 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $557 +$425 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $578 +$877 +152%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $506 −$506 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $506 +$284 +56%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $508 −$8 -2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $509 −$509 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $504 +$210 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $610 +$818 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,316 +$2,481 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $506 +$371 +73%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $610 +$736 +121%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $508 −$508 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $691 +$788 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $405 −$405 -100%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 11 $605 −$605 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 11 $488 −$488 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 11 $679 −$679 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $697 +$704 +101%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $654 +$448 +68%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $2,327 +$2,755 +118%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $1,181 +$1,146 +97%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 09 $507 −$59 -12%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $618 −$30 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $289 −$289 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 09 $609 −$609 -100%
Game Handicap: PNG (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 09 $809 −$809 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $888 −$888 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $1,267 +$1,043 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,184 +$3,063 +140%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,036 +$1,249 +120%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $265 +$234 +88%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $516 +$684 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 29¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $406 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $509 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $506 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $557 22h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 59¢ $506 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $576 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $509 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $506 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 50¢ $508 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 63¢ $506 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $504 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $509 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $610 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $3,797 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $498 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $4 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $995 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $813 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 52¢ $243 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,977.23 · official $1,977.73 (match) · 783 history records