Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfaf…9875 crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+1%) realized +$523 · open −$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%65W / 36L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$27
14 days+$837
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$347
world 21% −$392
sports 13% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 76% -9.1%
≤30d 100 -10.3% -18.9% 64% 52% -8.9%
≤90d 101 -10.2% -18.8% 64% 51% -8.9%
all 101 -10.2% -18.8% 64% 51% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 51% -8.9%
10% -26.5% 32% -17.6%
15% -33.6% 20% -25.6%
20% -40.1% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$69 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$523
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses65 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage37d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 83¢ 1¢ $259 $4 −$255 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $353 +$102 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $349 +$59 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $441 +$194 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $329 −$328 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$40 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $220 +$80 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $194 −$191 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $237 +$63 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $363 +$107 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $599 +$101 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $255 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $154 +$86 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $158 +$42 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $156 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $168 +$52 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $270 +$60 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $328 −$328 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $139 +$25 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $542 +$131 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $380 +$120 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $164 +$56 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $324 +$55 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $356 +$44 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $285 +$119 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $210 +$90 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $455 +$45 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $652 +$42 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $210 +$40 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $320 +$80 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $368 +$65 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $87 +$13 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $176 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $233 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $305 +$5 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $251 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $105 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$16 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $360 +$49 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,104 −$122 -11%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 27 $139 −$23 -16%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 4 Winner May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 3 Winner May 27 $101 −$70 -70%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 27 $57 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $252 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $119 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $55 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $160 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $45 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $287 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $85 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $76 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $76 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $90 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $70 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $276 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $159 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $150 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $130 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $78 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $4.38 (match) · 404 history records