Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfb3…f4f6 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,190 (-4%) realized −$2,104 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%145W / 82L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,337
7 days+$1,337
14 days+$1,337
30 days+$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$3,317
sports 15% +$2,667
other 7% −$1,752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 55% +7.4%
≤30d 29 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 55% +7.4%
≤90d 223 -10.5% -19.0% 64% 45% -15.3%
all 227 -10.1% -18.6% 64% 45% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -13.4%
10% -26.4% 32% -21.7%
15% -33.5% 22% -29.2%
20% -40.0% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$180 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$2,104
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses145 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)227 / 229
History coverage101d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 78¢ 69¢ $830 $744 −$86 (-10%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 66¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $294 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $92 +$36 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $116 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $205 +$85 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $349 −$78 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $122 +$42 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $377 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $225 +$95 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $410 +$207 +51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $397 −$394 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $353 +$41 +12%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $809 +$885 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $307 +$24 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $302 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $405 +$84 +21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $806 +$283 +35%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $634 +$151 +24%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $312 −$298 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $174 −$170 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $309 +$224 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 06 $204 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 06 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 06 $125 +$7 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 22 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 22 $79 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 22 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 22 $69 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 22 $82 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 22 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 22 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $432 −$305 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 07 $1,387 −$1,387 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 83¢ $302 39m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 82¢ $402 44m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $61 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $71 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.08 · official $800.18 (match) · 1121 history records