Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfb4…da3c
sports · 246 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$105 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$128 · open +$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$507
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses108 / 111
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions27
Markets (closed)219 / 246
History coverage398d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 27 History 219 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$316
14 days+$316
30 days+$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 78¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+76%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Doosan Bears 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Hanwha Eagles 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins LG Twins 62¢ 61¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+89%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+614%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $20 +$16 +77%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $30 +$16 +54%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $20 +$19 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 +$57 +81%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $41 +$40 +100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $18 +$12 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $36 +$29 +80%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $20 +$24 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $41 +$35 +86%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +73%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $10 +$6 +61%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$138 +138%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $35 +$15 +43%
Raptors vs. Magic Feb 13 $20 +$12 +61%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5 Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
ASB Classic: Eliot Spizzirri vs Fabian Marozsan Jan 16 $50 +$19 +38%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Baez Jan 15 $29 −$22 -74%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Luca Nardi vs Aleksandar Vukic Jan 11 $12 +$8 +64%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys Jan 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Andrea Vavassori vs Raphael Col Jan 11 $20 +$18 +89%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $20 +$17 +85%
Islanders vs. Wild Jan 11 $19 +$23 +122%
Kings vs. Oilers Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Hobart International, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Simona Waltert Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$121
politics 38% +$62
other 12% +$104
crypto 5% −$335
world 3% +$154
tech 1% +$42
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $20 55m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 59¢ $20 55m
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 62¢ $20 56m
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 58¢ $20 57m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 57¢ $20 57m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $20 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $20 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $20 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 58¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $11 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $21 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $21 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 8h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $21 9h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan BUY Alan Magadan 87¢ $20 17h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 36¢ $20 18h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 64¢ $30 18h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 56¢ $20 19h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $20 19h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 50¢ $20 19h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 65% +23.3%
≤30d 34 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 65% +23.3%
≤90d 34 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 65% +23.3%
all 219 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 47% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 47% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 44% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.29 · official $505.69 (match) · 670 history records