Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdfb5…0f14 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$416 (+27%) realized +$423 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 59L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$329
sports 20% +$69
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +4.3% -5.6% 26% 26% +20.7%
≤30d 80 +4.3% -5.6% 26% 26% +20.7%
≤90d 80 +4.3% -5.6% 26% 26% +20.7%
all 80 +4.3% -5.6% 26% 26% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 26% +20.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 26% +9.1%
15% -22.9% 26% -1.4%
20% -30.4% 26% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$12 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$423
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 59
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)80 / 96
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 38¢ 36¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$25 +124%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -91%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -44%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $31 +$242 +786%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 +$60 +291%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$65 +107%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$17 +86%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$82 +115%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$49 +241%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$46 +226%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$20 +197%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$56 +276%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$24 +237%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 59m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 14h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 15h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.02 · official $292.72 (match) · 170 history records