Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfb5…4f8f world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% $0
other 24% +$1
politics 21% $0
crypto 13% +$3
sports 12% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage274d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $13 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 −$1 -32%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $37 +$1 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 22 $17 +$2 +15%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $32 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 23h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $7 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $25 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $31 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $31 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $31 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $30 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $34 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $34 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records