Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfb8…a530
crypto · 384 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,142 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,142 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses265 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage482d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$1,056
14 days−$1,056
30 days−$1,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribes" during his next video? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference? No 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Trump mention "South Park" by Sunday? No 80¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$12 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$12 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$12 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$524
sports 4% −$441
other 3% −$216
weather 3% −$8
tech 2% +$39
culture 1% +$39
world 0% +$3
politics 0% −$24
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 53% -20.1%
≤30d 341 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 53% -20.1%
≤90d 341 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 53% -20.1%
all 384 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 51% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 51% -19.9%
10% -25.2% 22% -27.6%
15% -32.4% 10% -34.6%
20% -39.0% 6% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 954 history records