Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfbd…5a6c weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+7%) realized +$47 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 3 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 3 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
all 3 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 33% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 33% -12.3%
15% -43.4% 33% -20.7%
20% -48.9% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$11 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 59¢ 100¢ $101 $171 +$70 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $72 $96 +$24 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $30 $70 +$40 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? No 60¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$35 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 −$21 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 61¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.03 · official $349.03 (match) · 73 history records