Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfc3…7d0a crypto 1185 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,178 (+2%) realized +$1,224 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%950W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 181d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$360
other 9% −$266
world 1% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -97.1% -97.4% 1% 1% -87.9%
≤30d 156 -82.6% -84.2% 7% 6% -59.2%
≤90d 189 -69.5% -72.4% 14% 11% -53.5%
all 1311 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 72% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 72% -17.0%
10% -24.5% 3% -24.9%
15% -31.8% 2% -32.2%
20% -38.5% 1% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$33 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$1,224
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses950 / 361
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1311 / 1185
History coverage181d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $195 $182 −$12 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $120 $98 −$22 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $38 $28 −$11 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 238 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs BNK FEARX (BO1) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $68 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $251 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $78 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $99 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.75 · official $308.00 (match) · 3500 history records