Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdfc5…52ab culture 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+6%) realized +$40 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days+$21
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.8% -46.5% 50% 25% -22.2%
≤30d 9 -12.2% -20.6% 56% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 9 -12.2% -20.6% 56% 44% -3.5%
all 9 -12.2% -20.6% 56% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 44% -3.5%
10% -28.2% 33% -12.7%
15% -35.1% 22% -21.2%
20% -41.5% 11% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage28d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $129 $127 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +7%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $109 +$17 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -91%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 13 $40 −$38 -95%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $53 +$30 +57%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $54 +$20 +37%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 06 $1 $0 -56%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $88 +$22 +25%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $99 −$10 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 85¢ $129 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL Yes 98¢ $47 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 98¢ $29 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 98¢ $53 5d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 70¢ $59 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 37¢ $44 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 43¢ $50 7d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 7d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 7d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 91¢ $44 7d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 7d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 7d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 7d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 7d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 99¢ $83 11d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 11d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 63¢ $53 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 SELL Yes 94¢ $110 18d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 BUY Yes 74¢ $88 21d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b SELL Yes 75¢ $89 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY Yes 82¢ $99 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.92 · official $126.92 (match) · 30 history records