Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdfc6…57a9 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$5
crypto 12% +$2
politics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 53 +0.0% -9.5% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage522d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $35 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 03 $29 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $5,020 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 27 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $43 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $54 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $23 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $37 182d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $35 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 243d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 334d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $28 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 364d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $8 424d
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? BUY No 99¢ $8 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.90 · official $58.90 (match) · 112 history records