Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdfc6…734a other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$185 (+7%) realized +$183 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%52W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$29
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$9
sports 36% +$122
politics 10% +$26
crypto 5% +$18
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.4% -7.4% 63% 47% -6.0%
≤30d 47 +1.5% -8.2% 66% 49% -0.4%
≤90d 75 +1.7% -8.0% 69% 52% -0.3%
all 75 +1.7% -8.0% 69% 52% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 52% -0.3%
10% -16.8% 43% -9.8%
15% -24.8% 33% -18.5%
20% -32.2% 27% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses52 / 23
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)75 / 90
History coverage62d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+127%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 57¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$2 -19%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +32%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$2 +8%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 +$4 +165%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$3 +70%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 +$4 +90%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $4 +$4 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$5 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$5 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 +$4 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$13 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $246 +$29 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $29 +$16 +55%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $3 +$3 +114%
Will CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $2 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 57¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $7 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $6 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 43¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $23 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $2 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $5 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $4 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $5 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.47 · official $919.27 (match) · 169 history records