Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdfcb…5275 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$4
other 24% +$3
politics 7% +$2
crypto 7% $0
weather 4% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +52.2% +37.7% 35% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 17 +52.2% +37.7% 35% 12% -9.6%
all 46 +18.4% +7.1% 57% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 11% -9.0%
10% -3.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -12.5% 2% -25.7%
20% -21.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage467d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $28 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $56 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 −$1 -38%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $29 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $5 $0 -1%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $14 +$2 +17%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 09 $13 +$2 +16%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $16 $0 +3%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 06 $3 $0 +12%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $29 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $13 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $12 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $10 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $6 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $24 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $0 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records