Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfcb…bf61
crypto · 336 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$557 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$557 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$201
Realized−$557
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses301 / 31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)332 / 336
History coverage81d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 332 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$211
14 days−$157
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 68¢ 66¢ $99 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 96¢ 95¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $102 +$48 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 08 $66 +$9 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $39 −$13 -34%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $61 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 07 $71 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $59 −$38 -64%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 06 $54 −$40 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $159 −$77 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $96 −$90 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $136 −$28 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $115 −$67 -58%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 06 $81 −$34 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $79 +$16 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $92 +$47 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $43 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $54 +$16 +29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 05 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $24 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$379
weather 4% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $107 56m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $97 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $99 18h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $58 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $100 19h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $100 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $17 29h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 88¢ $100 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $100 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 93¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $99 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 75¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -6.0% -15.0% 76% 29% -14.8%
≤30d 99 -3.0% -12.2% 74% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 332 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 13% -10.0%
all 332 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 13% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.00 · official $208.44 · 1184 history records