Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfcc…309e weather 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%345W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 160 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 345 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 345 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses345 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)345 / 349
History coverage51d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19? Jun 20 $236 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $211 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $146 37m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $37 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $208 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $53 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $31 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $169 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $260 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $142 30h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $236 37h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 41h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $260 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $94 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $54 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $211 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $83 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $88 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.46 · official $261.41 (match) · 770 history records