Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdfcd…36df sports 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,818 (-13%) realized −$6,818 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%166W / 137L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$971
7 days−$1,749
14 days−$2,245
30 days−$6,951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -10.7% -19.2% 51% 29% -21.4%
≤30d 273 -12.0% -20.4% 54% 37% -22.3%
≤90d 303 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 37% -22.0%
all 303 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 37% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 37% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 24% -29.5%
15% -33.3% 16% -36.3%
20% -39.8% 11% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$95 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$6,818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses166 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions3
Markets (closed)303 / 306
History coverage40d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 42¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Belgium 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $326 +$5 +2%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$4 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $71 +$6 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $129 −$76 -59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $136 +$66 +48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $271 −$86 -32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $29 −$5 -19%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $233 +$26 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$12 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 +$21 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $95 +$12 +13%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $267 +$14 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $105 +$37 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$6 +13%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $223 +$39 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $155 −$18 -12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 −$32 -64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $83 +$3 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $668 −$436 -65%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 −$14 -22%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $225 −$26 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $351 +$49 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $404 −$349 -86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $364 −$159 -44%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$1 -11%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $36 +$12 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $191 −$3 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $77 −$76 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $223 +$67 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $90 +$18 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 +$37 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $201 +$17 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $67 +$7 +10%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $239 −$41 -17%
Spread: Cambodia (-1.5) Jun 12 $123 +$277 +226%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$151 +99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $26 −$15 -57%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $33 +$2 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $292 −$38 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $28 26m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Belgium 97¢ $10 45m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $2 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $8 59m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 95¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 95¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 93¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 92¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 90¢ $11 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $118 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $23 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $11 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.37 · official $49.37 (match) · 1785 history records