Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfd0…f477
other · 134 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$1,283 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,283 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,670
Realized+$1,283
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage121d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days+$1,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,670 $1,670 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,632 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,081 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,613 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $1,085 +$5 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,191 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,276 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $867 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? May 28 $665 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,283 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,106 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $829 +$1,609 +194%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,079 −$3 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,327 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 28 $195 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $4,080 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $3,315 −$3 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $387 −$37 -10%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2,069 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,722 −$4 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $450 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$1,412
politics 33% −$49
sports 14% −$40
world 4% −$6
crypto 2% +$5
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$38
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,671 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,629 17h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 19h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 21h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 24h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,699 5d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,700 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,677 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,679 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,611 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,613 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $911 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $912 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $913 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $914 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $866 15d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $665 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $698 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $658 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $659 16d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $665 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 +9.6% -0.8% 10% 5% -5.1%
≤90d 110 -8.9% -17.6% 10% 5% -9.0%
all 133 -2.4% -11.7% 18% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -8.6%
10% -20.2% 11% -17.3%
15% -27.9% 9% -25.3%
20% -34.9% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,669.61 · official $1,669.61 (match) · 431 history records