Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdfd4…91f7 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-6%) realized −$34 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$55
sports 22% −$13
other 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +15.8% +4.8% 33% 33% -2.2%
≤30d 15 +15.8% +4.8% 33% 33% -2.2%
≤90d 15 +15.8% +4.8% 33% 33% -2.2%
all 15 +15.8% +4.8% 33% 33% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 33% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 27% -11.6%
15% -14.4% 20% -20.1%
20% -22.8% 20% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 36¢ 48¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$31 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$23 +541%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$4 -38%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$7 -74%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$6 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $68 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 34¢ $6 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 15¢ $3 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 55¢ $10 6h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 53¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 17¢ $4 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 30¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 51¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.36 · official $60.42 · 39 history records