Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfd7…3ab7 politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5
politics 23% +$1
other 17% −$1
economics 10% +$1
crypto 8% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 100% +2.8%
≤30d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 29% 14% -7.3%
≤90d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 29% 14% -7.3%
all 33 +0.4% -9.1% 27% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.82 per $1 lost it wins $5.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 +$5 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $39 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 14 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +2%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $3 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $4 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $14 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $24 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $7 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $26 23h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $26 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $26 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 25d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 247d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $20 247d
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $4 247d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $20 247d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11 247d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 247d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 247d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $19 247d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 248d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? SELL No 18¢ $1 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.12 · official $45.12 (match) · 97 history records