Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfda…4fe6 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22,951 (-3%) realized −$24,532 · open +$1,581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%81W / 60L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$4,683per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Fees−$3,117est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$49,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$49,747
sports 37% +$62,060
crypto 0% +$279
world 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -13.2% -21.4% 48% 39% -21.8%
≤30d 86 +11.8% +1.2% 59% 48% -17.5%
≤90d 141 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 41% -8.0%
all 141 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 41% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 41% -8.0%
10% -13.8% 39% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 36% -24.8%
20% -29.8% 32% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$3,882) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,300 vs −$2,921 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$49,043
Realized−$24,532
Unrealized+$1,581
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses81 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3,117
Open positions10
Markets (closed)141 / 151
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$4,683
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 88¢ 90¢ $22,870 $23,260 +$390 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 92¢ $16,129 $16,063 −$65 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 48¢ $5,184 $5,130 −$54 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 62¢ $1,415 $3,002 +$1,586 (+112%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $536 $533 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 66¢ $383 $447 +$64 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $432 $313 −$119 (-28%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $282 $285 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 58¢ 6¢ $81 $9 −$72 (-89%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals No 33¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $184 +$86 +47%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $441 −$436 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,480 +$1,480 +100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $447 −$14 -3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $187 −$187 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $201 −$201 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $232 −$232 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 22 $257 −$257 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $296 −$296 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 22 $307 −$307 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $329 −$329 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $329 −$329 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $344 −$344 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $1,095 −$420 -38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $271 −$271 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $730 −$730 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $861 −$861 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $1,237 −$1,237 -100%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $481 −$464 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 22 $3,286 −$3,286 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 22 $3,318 −$3,318 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $3,184 −$3,184 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5,491 −$5,491 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $30,274 −$13,753 -45%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $7,290 −$7,290 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? Jun 22 $7,049 −$4,120 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $16,151 −$11,251 -70%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $33,412 −$33,401 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,701 +$689 +12%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $127 +$296 +233%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $185 −$181 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $383 +$486 +127%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7,246 −$6,706 -92%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $7,800 +$2,200 +28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4,670 +$330 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $426 +$254 +60%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $400 +$278 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,745 +$2,847 +163%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,080 +$270 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $655 +$340 +52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $125,851 +$5,168 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5,920 +$10,080 +170%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 20 $660 +$270 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $437 +$271 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31,179 +$4,644 +15%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31,646 +$16,265 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $97 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 58¢ $82 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1,787 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $90 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $8 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $73 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $22 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $16 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $7 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $37 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $22 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $73 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $29 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $37 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $40 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $8 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $7 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $9 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $15 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $7 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $73 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $7 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $43 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $176 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $11 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $101 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $73 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $37 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,043.08 · official $49,043.08 (match) · 3500 history records