Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfdd…5585 crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,267 (-13%) realized −$1,692 · open −$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%62W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$1,378
14 days−$1,209
30 days−$2,567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$4,086
sports 13% +$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% -32.5%
≤30d 159 -8.7% -17.4% 38% 36% -26.0%
≤90d 168 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 35% -27.7%
all 168 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 35% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 35% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 35% -34.6%
15% -34.8% 34% -41.0%
20% -41.2% 29% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$67 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized−$575
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses62 / 106
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions7
Markets (closed)168 / 175
History coverage35d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $454 $310 −$144 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $218 $116 −$102 (-47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 17¢ 7¢ $205 $88 −$117 (-57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 14¢ 8¢ $131 $70 −$61 (-47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 2¢ 1¢ $70 $31 −$39 (-56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $115 $3 −$112 (-97%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$107 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$50 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $101 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$43 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $204 −$41 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$36 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$59 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$35 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$14 +331%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $153 −$147 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$20 +52%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 23 $196 −$158 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$26 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $113 −$106 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $507 −$477 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $215 −$202 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $33 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $62 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $69 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $34 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $17 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $34 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.94 · official $590.12 · 810 history records