Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfe0…b8e0
politics · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$236
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage18d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $236 $236 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 27 $230 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 52% −$3
other 19% −$1
crypto 11% $0
world 9% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 49m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $230 50m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $230 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $218 22h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $218 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $236 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $236 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $230 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $230 24h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $101 24h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $101 2d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $134 2d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $134 2d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $132 2d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $132 2d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $136 2d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $136 2d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $144 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $144 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.88 · official $235.88 (match) · 58 history records