Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfe6…ca42
crypto · 275 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$229 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$228 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses139 / 135
Open positions1
Markets (closed)274 / 275
History coverage76d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 274 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 42% -20.5%
≤30d 80 -16.9% -24.8% 41% 40% -37.7%
≤90d 274 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 48% -18.3%
all 274 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 48% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 48% -18.3%
10% -24.2% 43% -26.2%
15% -31.6% 32% -33.3%
20% -38.3% 23% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $2.81 · 1037 history records