Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfe6…b42e
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$126 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$126 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage89d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 3 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Kings vs. Nets Kings 50¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $7 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $591 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $402 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% −$5
politics 13% −$1
sports 3% −$120
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 62d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 62d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3 62d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 62d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 62d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 62d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 75d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 75d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 75d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 76d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 76d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 76d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 76d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4 76d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $5 77d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 77d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 77d
Kings vs. Nets BUY Kings 50¢ $120 77d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $893 77d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $894 77d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $304 77d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $590 77d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $591 78d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $307 78d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $897 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 40 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 0% -11.4%
all 40 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.57 (match) · 114 history records