Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfe6…e0fb crypto 1627 markets active 4h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%1467W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$32
14 days−$34
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
sports 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -48.2% -53.1% 47% 26% -22.0%
≤30d 119 -15.4% -23.5% 75% 42% -9.8%
≤90d 404 -4.3% -13.4% 79% 64% -9.2%
all 1648 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 17% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1467 / 181
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1648 / 1627
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1648 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1679%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1000%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -867%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -743%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -768%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -835%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -926%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -696%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 39h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 9d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 95¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records