Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfe6…2769 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,160 (-30%) realized −$1,100 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$643
sports 27% −$531
other 23% +$53
finance 12% −$39
crypto 4% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.7% +11.0% 33% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 6 +14.9% +3.9% 50% 33% -5.6%
≤90d 47 -16.5% -24.5% 51% 36% -50.3%
all 47 -16.5% -24.5% 51% 36% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -50.3%
10% -31.7% 32% -55.0%
15% -38.3% 26% -59.4%
20% -44.4% 21% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$67 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized−$1,100
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions13
Markets (closed)47 / 60
History coverage82d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 69¢ 72¢ $193 $200 +$7 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $84 $71 −$13 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $27 +$3 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 19¢ $60 $24 −$36 (-60%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $80 −$16 -20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$6 -27%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 27 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 03 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $120 −$92 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 27 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 27 $12 +$18 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 27 $7 +$5 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 27 $100 +$38 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $31 +$17 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 26 $100 −$14 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $246 −$20 -8%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 +$65 +131%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $93 −$30 -32%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $113 −$113 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30? Apr 11 $113 −$113 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $466 −$413 -89%
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30? Apr 09 $59 +$17 +28%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $324 −$324 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $92 +$143 +154%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 +$23 +113%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 07 $60 +$19 +31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 07 $80 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $51 34m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $51 34m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $77 44m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $78 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $64 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 52m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $80 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $54 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $38 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $60 21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 38h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $44 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $42 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $32 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.39 · official $672.68 (match) · 200 history records