Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfe8…9f16 crypto 1643 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,490 (-12%) realized −$1,342 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%748W / 833L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$142
14 days+$201
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$513
sports 8% −$219
weather 5% −$242
world 4% −$126
other 4% −$3
economics 3% −$242
finance 1% −$21
politics 1% −$26
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 +6.4% -3.7% 64% 55% -2.0%
≤30d 479 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 53% -6.6%
≤90d 1581 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 44% -19.4%
all 1581 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 44% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 44% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 40% -27.1%
15% -32.4% 37% -34.2%
20% -39.0% 35% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$1,342
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses748 / 833
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1581 / 1643
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 6¢ $150 $122 −$28 (-19%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 1¢ $150 $31 −$119 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$63 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$24 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$57 +537%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.74 · official $152.43 (match) · 3500 history records