Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfe9…a2b6 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-24%) realized −$120 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$77
crypto 27% −$13
sports 9% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.5% -49.7% 36% 36% -50.7%
≤30d 11 -44.5% -49.7% 36% 36% -50.7%
≤90d 11 -44.5% -49.7% 36% 36% -50.7%
all 11 -44.5% -49.7% 36% 36% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 36% -50.7%
10% -54.6% 27% -55.4%
15% -58.9% 18% -59.7%
20% -63.0% 18% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $147 $134 −$13 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$13 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$27 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.90 · official $252.91 (match) · 33 history records