Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdfe9…7af9 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$20 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$12
other 25% +$15
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +46.0% +32.1% 100% 100% +62.1%
≤30d 3 +46.0% +32.1% 100% 100% +62.1%
≤90d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% -10.4%
all 20 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -10.4%
10% -18.9% 40% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 30% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage58d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Facundo Acosta 66¢ 94¢ $49 $70 +$21 (+42%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $111 +$100 +90%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 23 $50 −$49 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $95 −$93 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $82 +$13 +16%
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Apr 22 $18 −$18 -100%
ELH: Trinec vs. Dynamo Pardubice Apr 22 $22 +$20 +90%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 22 $27 +$13 +48%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 22 $32 +$45 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +9%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Choinski Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic Apr 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +12%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $30 +$42 +140%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Elmer Moeller Apr 21 $25 +$73 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 66¢ $49 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $57 1h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $111 17h
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $50 54d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 52¢ $50 54d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 52¢ $50 55d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 51¢ $45 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $82 55d
ELH: Trinec vs. Dynamo Pardubice SELL Trinec 100¢ $42 55d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana SELL Tomas Machac 100¢ $40 55d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana BUY Tomas Machac 67¢ $27 56d
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 100¢ $77 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 56d
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 41¢ $32 56d
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 59¢ $18 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 56d
ELH: Trinec vs. Dynamo Pardubice BUY Trinec 52¢ $22 56d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Bruins 41¢ $30 56d
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic BUY Viktor Durasovic 77¢ $18 56d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Elmer Moeller SELL Elmer Moeller 100¢ $98 56d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Elmer Moeller BUY Elmer Moeller 25¢ $25 57d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 58¢ $25 57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $30 57d
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Choinski BUY Choinski 59¢ $20 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.67 · official $184.67 (match) · 42 history records