Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdfeb…5d8b politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$3
world 17% −$1
other 2% −$12
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -8.4% -17.2% 8% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -25.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage252d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $169 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 -0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 8h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 12h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 16h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 21h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 21h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 22h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 23h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 31h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 34h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 35h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 37h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 44h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 45h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 47h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 47h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.00 · official $220.00 (match) · 45 history records