Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfed…12c3 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,522 (+26%) realized +$1,556 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,095
7 days+$1,971
14 days+$1,665
30 days+$1,610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$450
sports 28% +$1,160
world 3% −$64
finance 1% −$30
other 0% +$7
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +32.3% +19.7% 60% 60% +24.1%
≤30d 28 +18.1% +6.9% 54% 54% +16.2%
≤90d 32 +19.3% +7.9% 59% 56% +16.2%
all 40 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 45% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 45% +14.4%
10% -18.2% 42% +3.5%
15% -26.1% 40% -6.5%
20% -33.3% 35% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$123 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,556
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage106d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 74¢ 16¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-78%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$232 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$247 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$35 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $454 −$450 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $335 +$1,076 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $207 +$191 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $413 +$338 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $308 +$181 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $211 −$205 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $412 +$313 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $334 −$325 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $208 +$284 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $408 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $227 +$720 +317%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $214 +$225 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $300 −$295 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 07 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 07 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Miami address? Mar 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28? Feb 28 $44 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 56¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 75¢ $101 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $252 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $51 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $10 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $10 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $51 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $72 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $31 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $31 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $10 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $60 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $60 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.99 · official $5.99 (match) · 125 history records