Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdff0…0ff5 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+4%) realized +$253 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate79%58W / 15L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$800
other 19% +$78
world 2% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +20.5% +9.0% 79% 58% +5.5%
≤30d 73 +20.5% +9.0% 79% 58% +5.5%
≤90d 73 +20.5% +9.0% 79% 58% +5.5%
all 73 +20.5% +9.0% 79% 58% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 58% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -1.4% 38% -4.6%
15% -11.0% 29% -13.8%
20% -19.7% 19% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses58 / 15
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 101
History coverage5d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 83¢ 80¢ $83 $80 −$4 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $58 $52 −$5 (-9%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 68¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $49 +$26 +54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $77 +$23 +31%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $46 +$4 +9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $37 +$13 +35%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $129 +$21 +16%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $30 +$44 +147%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $20 +$33 +165%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 +$26 +27%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $183 +$17 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $89 +$11 +12%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $46 −$21 -47%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $92 $0 +0%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$24 +80%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 +$4 +11%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $32 $0 -1%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $30 −$2 -6%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $42 −$14 -33%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $51 +$73 +144%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan Jun 26 $20 +$61 +307%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $51 +$110 +216%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$14 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$14 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $13 +$2 +14%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$82 +161%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$58 +57%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U Jun 25 $50 +$9 +19%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $181 +$29 +16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$14 +41%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $89 +$11 +12%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $211 +$39 +19%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $411 +$5 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $131 +$45 +35%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $81 +$19 +24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U Jun 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $78 +$22 +28%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $143 +$29 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $191 +$6 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$27 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $83 12m
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 38¢ $10 19m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 26¢ $10 19m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 38¢ $10 20m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half BUY 33¢ $20 20m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 23m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 23m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026- BUY 78¢ $49 27m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $46 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $48 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $17 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $78 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 18h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $38 18h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $17 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $37 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 21h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $15 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.75 · official $355.10 · 240 history records