Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdff4…c74b weather 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$111 (+2%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate77%27W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$4
weather 13% +$1
world 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
other 6% +$1
sports 2% +$114
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 35 +3.3% -6.6% 77% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 3% -7.8%
10% -15.5% 3% -16.6%
15% -23.7% 3% -24.7%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.61 per $1 lost it wins $23.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses27 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage183d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C on June 4? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 27? May 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 21 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $463 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $472 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 1 Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 13 $105 +$114 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or below on March 7 Mar 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 61°F or below on March 1? Mar 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on February 2 Mar 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $358 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 19? Feb 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on Febr Feb 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 19? Feb 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or below on January Feb 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Man I Need - Olivia Dean be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on January 29? Feb 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 41°F or below on January 29 Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C or higher on Janu Feb 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Fe Feb 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Luka Dončić be a 2026 NBA All-Star? Jan 22 $3 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 45°F or below on January 11 Jan 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Austria join NATO by December 31? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will December 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jan 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on December Jan 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 22 $52 $0 +0%
China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025? Jan 22 $355 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $168 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $136 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $693 97d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $694 99d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $719 99d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $721 100d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 100d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 101d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $571 101d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $571 101d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 88¢ $512 102d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 88¢ $512 102d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $472 102d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 1 BUY No 100¢ $60 103d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $740 104d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $741 105d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $57 107d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 48¢ $105 109d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or below on March 7 BUY No 100¢ $62 114d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 61°F or below on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $60 120d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $40 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $357 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $358 123d
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 130d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 130d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on Febr BUY No 99¢ $18 132d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Fe BUY No 100¢ $30 141d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.96 · official $308.96 (match) · 79 history records