Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdff7…946f other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,279 (-1%) realized −$1,280 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%19W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,311per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,175
politics 35% −$56
sports 15% −$74
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -1.9% -11.2% 5% 0% -11.0%
all 97 +3.5% -6.3% 20% 14% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 14% -10.4%
10% -15.3% 14% -19.0%
15% -23.5% 11% -26.8%
20% -31.0% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,646) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$31 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$827
Realized−$1,280
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses19 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,311
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $551 $551 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $275 $275 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,496 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,315 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $622 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $224 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,778 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $229 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,844 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,544 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,966 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $702 −$1 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $1,392 −$1,392 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,081 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,806 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,291 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $7,770 −$8 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $275 2h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $307 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $308 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $372 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $372 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $551 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $806 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $807 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $811 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $812 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $671 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $738 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $711 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $701 16d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $702 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $845 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $846 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 20d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $621 20d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $622 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $827 21d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $828 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.73 · official $826.73 (match) · 306 history records