Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff7…d9d4 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+4%) realized +$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$100
crypto 37% −$72
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -17.4% -25.3% 33% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 55 -17.4% -25.3% 33% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 55 -17.4% -25.3% 33% 33% -5.8%
all 55 -17.4% -25.3% 33% 33% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 33% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 27% -14.8%
15% -39.0% 20% -23.0%
20% -44.9% 20% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $25 +$38 +148%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $18 +$49 +264%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $17 +$46 +262%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $41 +$88 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$16 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +155%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 16¢ $9 3h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 29¢ $15 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 40¢ $25 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 21¢ $36 3h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin BUY Nys/Roger-Vasselin 34¢ $15 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 26¢ $20 4h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 30¢ $19 4h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 27¢ $18 5h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 35¢ $17 6h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 27¢ $17 7h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 33¢ $20 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $20 12h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.74 · official $41.74 (match) · 161 history records