Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff9…f85d weather 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized −$120 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$58
14 days−$60
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$139
world 28% +$61
other 21% −$107
crypto 4% $0
sports 1% −$12
politics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 9% -11.6%
≤30d 114 +20.3% +8.8% 51% 19% -13.0%
≤90d 114 +20.3% +8.8% 51% 19% -13.0%
all 114 +20.3% +8.8% 51% 19% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 19% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 14% -21.3%
15% -11.1% 11% -28.9%
20% -19.8% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)114 / 119
History coverage26d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 34¢ 4¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $280 +$40 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $142 −$9 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $42 −$2 -6%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 21 $40 −$2 -4%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $200 −$8 -4%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $40 −$13 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $114 −$14 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -97%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $141 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$9 -35%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 16 $80 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $40 $0 -1%
Will BNB reach $800 in June? Jun 04 $20 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 48m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 49m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $27 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 63¢ $16 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 65¢ $12 55m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 70¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 70¢ $4 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $73 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $14 1h
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 1h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 6h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 10h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.48 · official $54.48 (match) · 798 history records