Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdffa…34df other 87 markets active 3h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,382 (-1%) realized −$1,382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,315per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$17
30 days−$2,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$65
politics 25% −$33
sports 10% −$1,310
culture 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 59 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 2% -11.0%
all 86 +0.8% -8.8% 15% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 12% -10.7%
10% -17.5% 12% -19.2%
15% -25.5% 9% -27.0%
20% -32.8% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$33 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$741
Realized−$1,382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,315
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $740 $741 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $319 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,576 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $240 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 27 $1,985 −$1,985 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,622 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,593 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,249 −$3 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $3,934 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,391 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $3,892 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,447 −$1 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $1,201 +$565 +47%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2,343 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $2,273 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $318 3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 4h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $345 6h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 8h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 32h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $244 32h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $244 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $741 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,477 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,479 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,455 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,457 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,537 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,540 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,095 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,320 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $740.77 · official $740.77 (match) · 245 history records