Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdffb…46f2 sports 8 markets active 7h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+7%) realized +$32 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$26
other 40% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 57% -2.1%
≤30d 7 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 57% -2.1%
≤90d 7 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 57% -2.1%
all 7 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 57% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 57% -2.1%
10% -21.7% 57% -11.5%
15% -29.3% 57% -20.1%
20% -36.2% 43% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 29¢ 26¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $121 +$46 +38%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$31 +76%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$37 +73%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $30 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $121 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $51 6h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $41 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.69 · official $45.69 (match) · 12 history records