Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe002…7813 crypto 26 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17,510 (-29%) realized −$24,847 · open +$7,337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,356per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,673
14 days−$29,031
30 days−$29,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$21,468
politics 5% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-86.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 22 -85.1% -86.6% 9% 5% -59.1%
≤90d 22 -85.1% -86.6% 9% 5% -59.1%
all 22 -85.1% -86.6% 9% 5% -59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.6% 5% -59.1%
10% -87.8% 5% -63.0%
15% ← realistic here -89.0% 0% -66.6%
20% -90.1% 0% -69.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,795) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,832 vs −$1,635 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$14,383
Realized−$24,847
Unrealized+$7,337
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2,356
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $5,021 $12,391 +$7,370 (+147%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? No 5¢ 8¢ $630 $996 +$365 (+58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 4¢ 2¢ $1,053 $528 −$524 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? No 5¢ 7¢ $341 $467 +$126 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $673 −$631 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $892 −$840 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $216 −$202 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 11 $1,023 −$962 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $613 −$576 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $314 −$294 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 10 $497 −$468 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $2,000 −$1,939 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $459 −$431 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $1,848 −$1,795 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $598 −$588 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 07 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $749 −$749 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $597 −$561 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $4,247 +$342 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $22,019 −$21,579 -98%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 05 $3,334 −$226 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $12,891 +$3,322 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $135 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,352 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $248 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $173 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $180 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $182 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $500 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $258 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,382.53 · official $14,382.53 (match) · 300 history records