Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe002…24b1 crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+0%) realized +$198 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate72%77W / 30L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$21
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$188
other 3% +$5
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 22 -0.6% -10.0% 86% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 41 -0.1% -9.6% 80% 0% -9.4%
all 107 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,328) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses77 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage247d
Avg bet$835
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $55 $57 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 27 $2,392 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 26 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 26 $292 +$1 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Jun 18 $1,548 +$10 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $530 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,296 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,297 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $836 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 06 $789 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1,336 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $991 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $493 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $419 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $83 +$6 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 02 $364 −$57 -16%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $637 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1,368 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 20? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 20? May 21 $505 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 21 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17? May 19 $596 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 11-17? May 12 $1,360 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 09 $1,365 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $1,284 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $1,356 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $339 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 19 $1,354 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $494 +$3 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? Apr 16 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19? Apr 15 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $4,014 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 08 $1,337 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $494 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $1,336 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 29 $496 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $346 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29? Mar 28 $1,331 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $297 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 25 $1,329 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25? Mar 24 $495 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $878 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 March 16-22? Mar 24 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $278 26h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $276 34h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $93 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $14 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 94¢ $106 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 94¢ $71 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $292 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $292 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $283 42h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $61 8d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? SELL No 99¢ $380 9d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 97¢ $130 10d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 98¢ $195 10d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 98¢ $50 10d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? SELL No 98¢ $540 11d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? SELL No 99¢ $373 11d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $396 13d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 97¢ $535 13d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? SELL No 98¢ $638 14d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 98¢ $586 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $533 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $530 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $699 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $579 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.27 · official $118.27 (match) · 762 history records