trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Up | 65¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $398 | $0 | −$398 (-100%) |
| Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria | Federico Coria | 54¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | Down | 27¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Down | 43¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | Down | 41¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | Vitality | 87¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D | Anubis Gaming | 23¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Up | 35¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Jun 13 | $21 | +$11 | +53% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Jun 13 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | Jun 13 | $20 | −$1 | -6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Jun 13 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag | Jun 12 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | Jun 12 | $15 | +$3 | +19% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | Jun 12 | $16 | −$15 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Jun 12 | $12 | +$3 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | Jun 24 | $398 | −$398 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 28% | 22% | -51.0% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 28% | 22% | -51.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 28% | 22% | -51.0% |
| all | 19 | -52.0% | -56.6% | 26% | 21% | -81.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -56.6% | 21% | -81.9% |
| 10% | -60.7% | 16% | -83.6% |
| 15% | -64.5% | 5% | -85.2% |
| 20% | -68.0% | 5% | -86.6% |