Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe004…7849 politics 328 markets active 13h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$719 (+6%) realized +$604 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%113W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$161
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$336
other 31% +$515
world 15% −$488
tech 6% −$28
culture 4% −$22
crypto 3% +$58
sports 3% −$94
weather 0% +$15
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +42.8% +29.2% 75% 75% -10.4%
≤30d 57 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 46% -15.6%
≤90d 123 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 44% +18.7%
all 230 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 42% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 42% -5.5%
10% -27.8% 33% -14.6%
15% -34.7% 23% -22.8%
20% -41.1% 17% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$4,761
Realized+$604
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses113 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions97
Markets (closed)230 / 328
History coverage220d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 97 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 36¢ $567 $593 +$26 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 98¢ $70 $321 +$251 (+359%)
Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? No 66¢ 100¢ $185 $281 +$96 (+52%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No 77¢ 74¢ $278 $269 −$9 (-3%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No 68¢ 80¢ $193 $225 +$33 (+17%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $167 $202 +$35 (+21%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $167 $194 +$27 (+16%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $180 $188 +$8 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 56¢ $113 $165 +$52 (+47%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $177 $164 −$13 (-7%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 44¢ 72¢ $96 $158 +$62 (+65%)
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? No 48¢ 69¢ $102 $147 +$45 (+44%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 39¢ 40¢ $132 $138 +$6 (+4%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 61¢ 98¢ $83 $133 +$50 (+60%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 82¢ 100¢ $104 $127 +$23 (+22%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $121 $118 −$3 (-3%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 77¢ 86¢ $97 $108 +$11 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-09 House seat? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $98 $107 +$9 (+9%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $49 $57 +$8 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+3%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.? No 73¢ 76¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $66 $51 −$15 (-23%)
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 46¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $46 +$77 +166%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $140 +$84 +60%
Will Hector De La Torre advance from the CA-41 primary election? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 30 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brad Sherman win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary electi May 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 23 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026? May 21 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? May 20 $139 +$37 +26%
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? May 20 $40 −$16 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $19 13h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 16h
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 16h
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $75 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $8 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $9 16h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 16h
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $30 16h
Will Brittany Mahomes be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 78¢ $7 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $17 2d
Will Christina Koch be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $8 3d
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $131 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4d
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative electio BUY No 74¢ $6 4d
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY Yes 34¢ $4 4d
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY Yes 34¢ $46 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 72¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,760.92 · official $4,772.29 (match) · 852 history records