Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe005…090a sports 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$216 (-8%) realized −$214 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%142W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$5
14 days+$97
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$13
other 40% −$258
world 1% +$23
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.4% -0.1% 41% 41% -10.6%
≤30d 48 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 40% -2.0%
≤90d 233 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 37% -22.7%
all 319 +5.3% -4.8% 45% 43% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 43% -16.8%
10% -13.9% 41% -24.8%
15% -22.2% 38% -32.1%
20% -29.8% 35% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses142 / 177
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)319 / 323
History coverage110d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 20¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $34 −$2 -5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$18 +61%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $52 −$1 -3%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$1 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A Jun 23 $3 +$9 +356%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $32 +$8 +25%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $29 +$76 +267%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 +$20 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $7 +$3 +49%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $31 +$172 +562%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $39 +$12 +32%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $6 +$6 +100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $4 +$5 +134%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $24 +$13 +54%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Tatiana Pieri Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $1 +$2 +192%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $3 +$8 +252%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 +$2 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $1 +$3 +224%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $5 +$7 +136%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 26 $2 +$4 +280%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $10 13m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 64¢ $33 15m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $49 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $34 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY $2 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $51 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 18¢ $9 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 28¢ $17 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $26 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND BUY $2 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 18¢ $18 34h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva $0 35h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva $2 35h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 16¢ $8 35h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 14¢ $10 47h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $33 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 24¢ $4 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 24¢ $20 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $3 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $1 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $1 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $20 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A SELL 57¢ $12 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 72¢ $40 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $105 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 13¢ $7 3d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 17¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.25 · official $10.85 · 974 history records