Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe009…9162 world 31 markets active 3h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$1
world 30% +$3
politics 23% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 64% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 0% -8.5%
all 30 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.64 per $1 lost it wins $5.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage283d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 66¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $14 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $26 +$2 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $135 +$1 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $90 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $31 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $10 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $11 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $35 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $33 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $24 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $30 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $2 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $2 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.02 · official $31.02 (match) · 102 history records