Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe00b…e39d sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-9%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$112
economics 20% −$23
other 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.6% -59.0% 22% 22% -40.7%
≤30d 33 -13.3% -21.5% 39% 39% -13.6%
≤90d 52 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 37% -34.9%
all 52 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 37% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 37% -34.9%
10% -35.0% 35% -41.1%
15% -41.2% 27% -46.8%
20% -47.0% 25% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage48d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$7 +128%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $5 −$1 -32%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $5 +$1 +25%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $64 −$16 -25%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $7 +$11 +149%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 04 $22 +$5 +24%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $8 +$8 +103%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $15 +$9 +57%
ITF Sumter: Martina Okalova vs Sahaja Yamalapalli Jun 04 $9 +$11 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Birmingham: Kayla Day vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $13 −$9 -67%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 5.5 May 23 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $3 +$7 +268%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $1 +$6 +468%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $7 +$1 +20%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $7 +$3 +40%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Jil Teichmann May 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $27 +$1 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens May 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $3 $0 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 May 02 $7 −$7 -98%
NEC vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 2.5 May 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Will NEC vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw? May 02 $4 +$3 +82%
AFC Ajax vs. PSV: O/U 3.5 May 02 $5 +$5 +101%
AFC Ajax vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 May 02 $21 −$20 -96%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $14 +$16 +118%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 May 02 $9 +$11 +128%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 02 $119 −$23 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 40¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 65¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 35¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? SELL Yes $0 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 39¢ $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 100¢ $11 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 90¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 23¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 99¢ $14 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 19¢ $3 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 76¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 29¢ $7 3d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 22¢ $4 4d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 25¢ $4 7d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 19¢ $6 8d
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Elina Avanesyan 46¢ $5 10d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling SELL Henry Searle 73¢ $7 11d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling BUY Henry Searle 57¢ $5 11d
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mary Stoiana 14¢ $3 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 16¢ $4 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 22¢ $2 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 80¢ $61 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 20¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 80¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records